Turn a product question into a validated counterfactual.
The simulation team defined the decision, built the target population, withheld evidence for validation, and returned traceable segment results.
At a glance · illustrative scenario
- Example price
- $45,000 engagement
- Billing unit
- Fixed engagement
- Scope
- 3 pricing scenarios
Illustrative simulation report informed by public case-study patterns. Figures demonstrate the workflow; they are not Darwin customer results.
Darwin operating guide · Seller view
A simulation should narrow a live decision and identify what must still be tested in market.
The seller delivers a documented population, fixed scenarios, validation plan, sensitivity analysis, and a decision brief that keeps assumptions visible.
- Set the decision and validation plan before opening scenario results.
- Treat modeled preference as a hypothesis, not a promised conversion rate.
- Show how the recommendation changes when population or price assumptions move.
Researchers build the population, assumptions, interventions, and backtest record.
The strategy team compares scenarios, uncertainty, and the decision each result supports.
Build a documented population, implement the three scenarios, and validate against evidence withheld from construction.
Compare three subscription prices across new and returning customers before choosing a live test.
- 01Inputs
Population + held-out evidence
- 02Work
3 scenarios + sensitivity checks
- 03Handoff
Rankings + validation memo
- Offer
- Build a documented population, implement the three scenarios, and validate against evidence withheld from construction.
- Decision
- Choose the next price test
- Alternatives
- 3 subscription prices
- Cohorts
- New + returning customers
- Validation
- Held-out evidence + sensitivity
- Next evidence
- Controlled live experiment
- Timeline
- Ten business days from inputs to decision review.
- Acceptance
- The population clears held-out thresholds and every recommendation traces to a scenario and audience.
Price setup, scenario runs, and additional scope.
Quote $45,000 for the defined population and three scenarios. Split payment across accepted design and final report; price additional segments or reruns separately.
The $45,000 engagement covers setup, three scenario runs, sensitivity analysis, and a decision briefing in ten business days.
Fixed-fee study with the validation plan agreed before results are opened.
- Example price
- $45,000 engagement
- Billing unit
- Fixed engagement
- Scope
- 3 pricing scenarios
Choose the next live test.
Produce a decision-ready simulation with explicit limits
The population clears held-out thresholds and every recommendation traces to a scenario and audience.
Synthetic respondents are not recruited people. A model’s recommendation is a hypothesis for validation, not a promised conversion rate.
- Primary goal
- Choose the next live test
- Delivery
- Rankings + validation memo
- Scope
- 3 pricing scenarios
Document assumptions, validation, and uncertainty.
Compare scenario rankings by segment, held-out agreement, absolute error, and sensitivity to population assumptions.
Held-out correlation, average gap, coverage, and decision turnaround
Synthetic respondents are not recruited people. A model’s recommendation is a hypothesis for validation, not a promised conversion rate.
- Evidence
- Rankings + validation memo
- Scope
- 3 pricing scenarios
- Record
- Version, date, and owner
Deliver the research record and settle the engagement.
Hand over the population specification, run versions, cross-tabs, and validation limits; invoice the accepted research package.
A validated population, scenario workbook, and recommendation
The population clears held-out thresholds and every recommendation traces to a scenario and audience.
Synthetic respondents are not recruited people. A model’s recommendation is a hypothesis for validation, not a promised conversion rate.
- Seller outcome
- A validated population, scenario workbook, and recommendation
- Acceptance
- The population clears held-out thresholds and every recommendation traces to a scenario and audience.
- Evidence record
- Held-out correlation, average gap, coverage, and decision turnaround
- Timeline
- Ten business days from inputs to decision review.
- Commercial close
- $45,000 engagement